Current Variant āProportions and Modeling Estimatesā
Percent prevalence of variants circulating in California are listed in the table below. Of total cases sequenced in October 2024, 44.9% were KP.3.1.1 (JN.1.11.1.3.1.1), 7.7% were XEC, a recombinant of KS.1.1 (JN.1.13.1.1.1) and KP.3.3 (JN.1.11.1.3.3), and 7.4% were MC.1 (KP.3.1.1.1).
Parent | BA.2.86 | JN.1.9.2 | JN.1.11.1 | JN.1.11.1 | JN.1.11.1 | JN.1.11.1 | JN.1.11.1 | KP.3.1.1 | JN.1.13 x KP.3 |
---|
Aug 2024 | 13.9% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 15.0% | 16.5% | 22.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
---|
Sept 2024 | 8.4% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 37.1% | 6.2% | 3.3% |
---|
Oct 2024 | 6.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 4.4% | 17.3% | 44.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% |
---|
Since there is a known delay in the availability of sequencing results, CDPH CalCAT model provides estimates of variant proportions for the most recent weeks. Models are updated biweekly on Fridays. Based on CDPH model estimates, KP.3.1.1, a sublineage of KP.3, is predicted to be the variant with the highest proportion and XEC is predicted to be the variant with the fastest growing proportion.